Prediction Arena Gives Five Frontier Models $10K in Real Money to Trade on Kalshi
A new benchmark hands GPT-5.2, Gemini 3 Pro, Claude Opus 4.5, Grok 4.1 Fast, and GLM 4.7 real cash to bet on prediction markets — testing probabilistic reasoning where it actually costs something to be wrong.
A team has launched Prediction Arena, a live experiment that gave five state-of-the-art AI models $10,000 each in real money to trade on the prediction market platform Kalshi, as announced by @grx_xce. The participating models — GPT-5.2, Gemini 3 Pro, Claude Opus 4.5, Grok 4.1 Fast, and GLM 4.7 — must analyze real-world events, assess probabilities, and place bets with actual financial consequences.
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